金声玉亮2.0模型评测报告

问题

There is a single choice question about high school statistics. Answer the question by replying A, B, C or D.
Question: A researcher plans a study to examine long-term confidence in the U.S. economy among the adult population. She obtains a simple random sample of 30 adults as they leave a Wall Street office building one weekday afternoon. All but two of the adults agree to participate in the survey. Which of the following conclusions is correct?
A. Proper use of chance as evidenced by the simple random sample makes this a well-designed survey.
B. The high response rate makes this a well-designed survey.
C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.
D. A voluntary response study like this gives too much emphasis to persons with strong opinions.
Answer:

答案

模型	模型答案	正确答案
金声玉亮2.0	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey. The researcher obtained a simple random sample of 30 adults as they left a Wall Street office building, which may not be representative of the entire adult population. This sampling method may introduce selection bias, as the sample is limited to individuals who work in or visit the Wall Street area, which may not reflect the views of the broader adult population. Therefore, the survey is poorly designed due to selection bias.	C
deepseekr1	The researcher's study uses a simple random sample (SRS), which minimizes bias in selection. However, the sample is drawn exclusively from adults leaving a Wall Street office building, which introduces selection bias. This group likely overrepresents finance professionals and does not reflect the broader U.S. adult population, undermining the survey's goal. While the high response rate (B) reduces non-response bias, it does not address the fundamental issue of an unrepresentative sample. The survey is not voluntary response (D), as participants were approached by the researcher. Thus, the critical flaw is selection bias, making C the correct answer. Answer: C	C
gpto1	C	C
GPT-4o	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.	C
llama3.1-70B-Instruct	C	C
llama3.1-405B-Instruct	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey. The researcher's sample is biased because it only includes adults who work in a Wall Street office building, which may not be representative of the entire adult population. This is an example of selection bias, which occurs when the sample is not representative of the population due to the way it was selected. The high response rate (28 out of 30 adults agreed to participate) does not necessarily make the survey well-designed, as the sample is still biased. The use of chance in selecting the sample (simple random sample) is not enough to overcome the selection bias. A voluntary response study would indeed give too much emphasis to persons with strong opinions, but that is not the primary issue with this survey. Therefore, the correct answer is C.	C
DeepSeek-Coder-V2	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.	C
Qwen2-72B-Instruct	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.	C
baichuan4	C	C
doubao	C The sample is obtained from only one specific location (a Wall Street office building) which may not be representative of the entire adult population in the US, indicating selection bias and making it a poorly designed survey. Just because it is a simple random sample and has a high response rate does not overcome the issue of a potentially biased sample source. And while a voluntary response study can have issues with strong opinions, that is not the main issue here.	C
minimax	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey. The reason is that two adults did not agree to participate, which could introduce selection bias if those who declined differ in their opinions about the U.S. economy compared to those who agreed to participate. A simple random sample is a good start, but the effectiveness of the sample depends on the response rate and whether the non-respondents differ systematically from the respondents.	C
kimi	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey. Explanation: The sample is not representative of the adult population as a whole because it is taken from people leaving a Wall Street office building, which is a specific group that may have different views on the economy compared to the general population. Additionally, the fact that only adults who agreed to participate were surveyed could introduce a bias towards those with stronger opinions or more time to spare, which is not representative of the entire adult population.	C
wenxinyiyan	C Explanation: The key issue in this survey design is the sampling method and the potential for selection bias. A. While a simple random sample is generally a good way to select participants, the problem here is the specific population being sampled. Just because chance is used doesn't automatically make it a well-designed survey if the sample frame is not representative of the target population. B. The response rate, while high, is not the primary concern in this scenario. A high response rate is generally positive, but it doesn't overcome the fundamental flaws in the sampling frame. C. The survey is poorly designed because of selection bias. The sample is taken from adults leaving a Wall Street office building on a weekday afternoon. This group is likely to have a specific set of characteristics and opinions (e.g., they may be more likely to be invested in the stock market, have a higher income, etc.) that are not representative of the general adult population in the U.S. Hence, this survey design is prone to selection bias. D. This option suggests a voluntary response study, which is not the case here. The survey was conducted among a random sample of adults leaving the building, not among those who voluntarily responded to some open call. Thus, this criticism does not apply to the described survey design.	C
zhipu	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey. Explanation: The sample is taken from adults leaving a Wall Street office building, which is not representative of the entire adult population. This introduces selection bias because the sample is likely to include individuals who work in finance and may have different views on the economy compared to the general population. This type of sampling does not ensure that the sample is representative of all adults, making the survey poorly designed due to selection bias. The other options do not address the fundamental issue of representativeness in the sampling method.	C
gpto1	C	C
deepseekv3	C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey. The researcher's method of obtaining a sample from adults leaving a Wall Street office building on a weekday afternoon introduces selection bias. This sample is not representative of the entire adult population in the U.S., as it likely overrepresents individuals who work in finance or are closely associated with the economy, and may not include a diverse range of economic perspectives. Therefore, the survey is poorly designed due to this selection bias.	C

模型

模型答案

正确答案

金声玉亮2.0

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

The researcher obtained a simple random sample of 30 adults as they left a Wall Street office building, which may not be representative of the entire adult population. This sampling method may introduce selection bias, as the sample is limited to individuals who work in or visit the Wall Street area, which may not reflect the views of the broader adult population. Therefore, the survey is poorly designed due to selection bias.

deepseekr1

The researcher's study uses a simple random sample (SRS), which minimizes bias in selection. However, the sample is drawn exclusively from adults leaving a Wall Street office building, which introduces **selection bias**. This group likely overrepresents finance professionals and does not reflect the broader U.S. adult population, undermining the survey's goal. While the high response rate (B) reduces non-response bias, it does not address the fundamental issue of an unrepresentative sample. The survey is not voluntary response (D), as participants were approached by the researcher. Thus, the critical flaw is **selection bias**, making **C** the correct answer.

**Answer:** C

gpto1

GPT-4o

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

llama3.1-70B-Instruct

llama3.1-405B-Instruct

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

The researcher's sample is biased because it only includes adults who work in a Wall Street office building, which may not be representative of the entire adult population. This is an example of selection bias, which occurs when the sample is not representative of the population due to the way it was selected. The high response rate (28 out of 30 adults agreed to participate) does not necessarily make the survey well-designed, as the sample is still biased. The use of chance in selecting the sample (simple random sample) is not enough to overcome the selection bias. A voluntary response study would indeed give too much emphasis to persons with strong opinions, but that is not the primary issue with this survey.

Therefore, the correct answer is C.

DeepSeek-Coder-V2

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

Qwen2-72B-Instruct

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

baichuan4

doubao

C

The sample is obtained from only one specific location (a Wall Street office building) which may not be representative of the entire adult population in the US, indicating selection bias and making it a poorly designed survey. Just because it is a simple random sample and has a high response rate does not overcome the issue of a potentially biased sample source. And while a voluntary response study can have issues with strong opinions, that is not the main issue here.

minimax

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

The reason is that two adults did not agree to participate, which could introduce selection bias if those who declined differ in their opinions about the U.S. economy compared to those who agreed to participate. A simple random sample is a good start, but the effectiveness of the sample depends on the response rate and whether the non-respondents differ systematically from the respondents.

kimi

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

Explanation: The sample is not representative of the adult population as a whole because it is taken from people leaving a Wall Street office building, which is a specific group that may have different views on the economy compared to the general population. Additionally, the fact that only adults who agreed to participate were surveyed could introduce a bias towards those with stronger opinions or more time to spare, which is not representative of the entire adult population.

wenxinyiyan

C

Explanation:
The key issue in this survey design is the sampling method and the potential for selection bias.

A. While a simple random sample is generally a good way to select participants, the problem here is the specific population being sampled. Just because chance is used doesn't automatically make it a well-designed survey if the sample frame is not representative of the target population.

B. The response rate, while high, is not the primary concern in this scenario. A high response rate is generally positive, but it doesn't overcome the fundamental flaws in the sampling frame.

C. The survey is poorly designed because of selection bias. The sample is taken from adults leaving a Wall Street office building on a weekday afternoon. This group is likely to have a specific set of characteristics and opinions (e.g., they may be more likely to be invested in the stock market, have a higher income, etc.) that are not representative of the general adult population in the U.S. Hence, this survey design is prone to selection bias.

D. This option suggests a voluntary response study, which is not the case here. The survey was conducted among a random sample of adults leaving the building, not among those who voluntarily responded to some open call. Thus, this criticism does not apply to the described survey design.

zhipu

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

Explanation: The sample is taken from adults leaving a Wall Street office building, which is not representative of the entire adult population. This introduces selection bias because the sample is likely to include individuals who work in finance and may have different views on the economy compared to the general population. This type of sampling does not ensure that the sample is representative of all adults, making the survey poorly designed due to selection bias. The other options do not address the fundamental issue of representativeness in the sampling method.

gpto1

deepseekv3

C. Selection bias makes this a poorly designed survey.

The researcher's method of obtaining a sample from adults leaving a Wall Street office building on a weekday afternoon introduces selection bias. This sample is not representative of the entire adult population in the U.S., as it likely overrepresents individuals who work in finance or are closely associated with the economy, and may not include a diverse range of economic perspectives. Therefore, the survey is poorly designed due to this selection bias.